Friday 20 July 2012

Plan B

So today, the Telegraph (of all papers) carries an article on IMF warnings to relax our austerity programme. They point out that 

"The IMF said that the British economy may not be able to cope with the scale of austerity planned for 2013-14.

"The IMF suggested there was little evidence to indicate fiscal easing would provoke a strong adverse reaction from markets"


They then went on to slash growth forecasts for the UK by a bigger margin than any other developed nation,  to just 0.2% having predicted 0.8% just three months ago. They have cut growth forecasts for next year from 2% to 1.4%


Now, if you've glazed over and all you can read is "Blah blah-blah blah-blah...." here are the important bits. 


Firstly, the economy is in a much worse mess than we feared. Everyone expected growth to be returning by now, instead, we are mired in recession and that recession is much deeper and lasting longer than anyone thought even a few months ago. It is almost certainly at least partially, a direct result of austerity policies


Secondly, the Labour and Lib Dem plans for the economy pre-election were right and the Tories have got this spectacularly wrong. Most voters did not vote for an austerity manifesto and I don't think it is any longer unreasonable to call a vote of no confidence in this government if they fail to relax their plans for the economy immediately. They have no mandate, no ideas and no ability. This is getting serious now. We risk losing a generation of young people to unemployment, a flatlining economy for a decade or more and grinding poverty for those casually crushed by the austerity steam roller. 


Finally, the lack of global imagination to solve these credit problems decimating our futures is breathtaking. What do the IMF suggest? 


Tax cuts. Yep, give carefully selected groups of society a bit more money back to spend in the economy. 
Also, maybe build some stuff. 


It seems to have escaped every lofty economic genius that taking with one hand (austerity) yet giving back with the other (tax-cuts) can only ever be a zero sum game. In primary school terms, 2-2 = 0 Add 2 back again and you still end up with 2


"Building some stuff" is much more promising. But we're talking post war scales of stimulus to have a hope of recovery. 


So George, I propose (as do many others) that you announce a National Restoration project. You will borrow lots of cash at historically low interest rates to build houses and bridges and restore national treasures. 

You will introduce the biggest apprenticeship scheme in living memory and offer real paid work to those who are unemployed. They will build their own homes, learn a trade or skills along the way, then they can live in the home they worked on themselves at a favourable rent. This way, we can train an army of engineers, builders, electricians, plumbers and architects and give them a secure future. If Government cannot build and then rent affordable housing at a profit, they really might as well give up. 


We must build and invent and innovate our way out of this mess with a sense of national spirit and solidarity. We can build opera houses or park pavillions; we can create treasures for the future or rescue those we already have. It doesn't matter too much what we build, but it matters very much that we start to build something. And soon. The scheme can rehabilitate offenders, train those without skills, or simply give young people a job and some hope. What's more, we'd be building more than just bricks and mortar. We'd be re-building communities.


A few houses won't help, one or two high gloss national announcements won't do the trick, things have gone too far. We need a vast national scheme backed with real commitment and passion.


The IMF warnings are stark and leave little room for doubt.


Now is a time for great women and men. For courage, inspiration and leadership. It is a time for pulling together, not falling apart, we must reach for the stars, not race to the bottom. 


I'm not sure that there is anyone left here, or abroad, who believes George Osborne is that man of courage or that this Government can provide the inspiration we need. 


Now is no time for British reservation or timidity. 


We need to act now. Or it it really will be too late. 







34 comments:

  1. Couldn't agree more. Tory-Libs out now!

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    1. haven't they all gone off on 4 months holiday?

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  2. Osborne's trying to save the banks, not us. The banksters have got themselves in such a Godawful mess that they're facing extinction. They owe more money than can be created by everyone on Earth working in concert. They're stuffed, basically. However, they'd rather leave a scorched earth than relinquish the grip that being able to create legal tender out of thin air has given them over the centuries so their game plan now is that we have to give up everything we hold dear (like our money then our lives) to keep them going. To aid this, Osborne is borrowing (ultimately from the banksters) at unheard of rates. We're the ones who'll have to be paying this all back, plus interest. Already in this government he's borrowed 156 Billion pounds more than Labour had planned to during the entire parliament. What does that make us? Even more in debt to the banks than we already were. Expect it to continue. That's his job. Remember, him, Cameron and Clegg, they're just silly little rich kids with nothing going for them at all except life being deeply unfair in their favour. If they didn't have their rich daddies, you'd never have heard of them. Want to fight back? Burn the City of London to the ground (that's where all this nastiness comes from) and look into creating local currencies near you. Look up the Bristol Pound as a good example.

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  3. Actually the IMF policies are even more divorced from their policies. After saying some useful things about investment, page 37 of the UK report argues for more more welfare cuts and greater attacks on public sector wages, and this is from a group of economists who have finally admitted low demand is a problem. See here for more http://tinyurl.com/cshlm2r

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  4. A huge boost to the economy would be to reverse benefit cuts. People on the breadline put every penny straight back into the economy, while an 'economic boost' put into the banks goes offshore.

    The head of the IMF pays no taxes on her massive salary... but for once, they are talking a modicum of sense, if Sue's reported their warning correctly.

    Jace x

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  5. I read Cameron's comments in the Sunday Telegraph, and he said with much ease that things will get worse and Public Spending Cuts will continue until at least 2020.

    And of course, I reacted with the usual anger and despair. Furious that he didn't mention bankers etc..

    Maybe it is time to realize Bankers and Greedy men are never going to pull us out of recession or depression, but only a Good Government with a Good Leader making good Policy.

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  6. Well we have to wonder what part of you are wrong george he doesnt get...We know the financial mess we are in isnt down to normal people it it purley and simply down to criminal banking practises and fruad on an industrial scale by those that run them.Derivatives , casino banking ,and all the other scams they have colluded in from the Libor fixing to money laundering is what got us here.
    There is a reason everyone availed themselves of cheap credit ...the banks persauded people it would all be ok knowing full well it wouldnt.Yes osbourne and co are only interested in saving the banks and the system around it that has always been thier ethos....them and the money first above ALL else.
    When is the Tipping Point going to be finally reached...well clearly we are not there yet but make no mistake this banking fiasco is not over.Just look at how everytime in the past few months we thought surely there cant be any more to come out and YEP there was.Tax avoidance by anyone who can seems to be part and parcel of the rot...i could go on in to our rights being eroded but we know they are and we still are not at the Tipping Point...is it time yet for all of us who keep saying it to get together and at least fight back as much as we possibly can for ourselves at least and you never know ripples do spread...enough is enough..surely....?????????

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  7. Building stuff - but NOT the HS2. You'd be far better off giving Chiltern Railways the money to extend their lines to Birmingham to add extra capacity.

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  8. didnt she also mention benefits

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  9. And just another suggestion - a huge investment in green technology. Make Britain a world leader in tangible solutions to save this beautiful, but currently doomed planet. This would create thousands of jobs. So much more sensible than pouring mega-bucks into the coffers of the likes of A4e, G4s and so-on

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  10. A little light relief, well, perhaps black humour, from the ever wonderful cartoonist Steve Bell in the Guardian today:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cartoon/2012/jul/19/economy-davidcameron

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  11. Seen this on Johnny Void's blog - the article shows the desperate measures a severely ill man is driven to because of the labyrinthine ESA system:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/health/profoundly-disabled-man-writes-own-death-certificate-in-protest-at-treatment-by-benefits-officials-1-2422211

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    1. my mother went through a similar ordeal before she died with cancer in hospital. In order for the hospice to take her she had to stop eating which proves hospices are not the place you think they are
      and like this poor frail man in Scotland is going through it look like he's reached the end of the line. Mentally at least and who can blame him

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  12. dont forget to ask for your ESA claim interview to be recorded

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/jul/20/fitness-for-work-tests-technical-chaos

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    1. I would normally be frightened to ask for my interview to be recorded, in case it seemed like I was trying to score points by antagonizing. I know that is nonsense, but I guarantee many people feel the same way. The fear involved when your life is on the line, well most of us have come to know that feeling.

      But I am considering getting up the courage to ask for the interview to be recorded when that time comes.

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    2. There is nothing to fear from these people...thats what they want us all to think.Remember this if they are determined to contiue down the path of scapegoating the sick and disabled then they plan to take what little we have anyway so fear nothing and demand they record it as your right.The time for fear is over.....

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  13. If most of the posters on here stopped screwing the system it may help!!!!

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    1. [QUOTE]Anonymous21 July 2012 10:14

      If most of the posters on here stopped screwing the system it may help!!!![/QUOTE]

      like who ? names some names or quote someone all you have done is made a troll statement and therefore is not valid

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    2. are you Iain Duncan Smith Bollox?

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    3. [QUOTE]Anonymous21 July 2012 10:47

      are you Iain Duncan Smith Bollox?[/QUOTE]

      if your saying that the people here in the main are scrounging then you need to be more precise as to how and give your reasons and as for me being IDS how could you possibly derive that statement ?

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    4. This dog bites back21 July 2012 at 17:04

      Hey anon screw yourself you piece of....you need to get back to tory troll central and STFU..some of these people can still bite back sshitferbrains and i am one of em so anytime you want to come and put your face out front please do say and i am sure we can arrange something so we can debate face to face....but you wont...in the end you show only your ignorance by your trolling....crawl back under your rock

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  14. Seb Coe, thatfrolorn fugure trying to make the olympics credible sums it up:
    He says that the rights of the sponsors need protecting as a major donor to the games - so limits on what people can do, say, wear etc are acceptable.
    What he fails to notive is that the british taxpayer has funded these games to the tune of upwards of £20 billion in a time of 'austerity'.
    So the sponsors are more important than the population hey, Coe - you cunt????

    Tory policy writ large

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  15. This dog bites back21 July 2012 at 17:09

    Now this anon above...we like....cos he or she is right coe is exactly that and more and if he ever said to me you cant wear that he would need to be still as fast as he once was to get the fuck out of the way of my size tens...twat...we paid for his fiasco and he has the fuckin cheek to dictate..sums up the tory attitude to all of us...

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    1. You like anonymous posts as long as they agree with what you say! Now that is probably the type of democracy you like!

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    2. well whats your problem then fuckwit..just what part of agreeing with dont you get....aint that what democracy is the right to agree and disagree and say so....if i like something i say so if i dont i dont so what...maybe you would like the kind of regime yor mate dave and co would like...no free speeech no rights ....that would include you to cos you sure as hell wont bein thier rich little clan......now then back to troll central theres a good little tory...

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    3. Perhaps learning to read and write English properly may help in your search for true democracy. On the other hand you probably save that for filling in your benefit claim forms! Or is illiteracy a "new" medical problem?

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    4. YOU paid - I very much doubt it!!!!!

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  16. Did you actually read the IMF report? They are not recommending more spending they want "Directors considered that deeper budget-neutral reallocations could also support recovery"
    and I am surprised you support "These Directors noted that any adjustment to the path of consolidation should be in the context of a multi-year plan and ideally accompanied by deeper long-run entitlement reform to help preserve credibility."

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  17. everyone should read this

    http://nannyknowsbest.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/taxed-to-death.html#comment-form

    it's not just the DEP who are killing people

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  18. Er, last time I looked we weren't short of housing; just affordable housing. As for apprenticing lots of people to build stuff, I'm sure the massed ranks of the construction industry, who have massive numbers of skilled men unable to find work, would be a bit miffed to say the least. Nice fantasy but you only need to look at Ireland to see where you're wrong on this one.

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  19. Blimey, what on earth happened to my comment thread? Barely a cross word for 2 years, now lots of sweary people and a few people moaning at me for stuff I didn't write.

    Must be silly season?

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  20. its the trolls what did it...

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  21. Well if anonymous of tory central had actually bothered to READ your suggestion Sue, he/she/IT might have noticed your suggestion was that the Government has a massive rebuilding programme like after the war...which would give the massive numbers of skilled men..and their new apprentices..jobs for the future...but then trolls spend their lives mired in all sort of s**t..they don't read too properly it seems..I blame this governments crap education policies and standards for that...lol

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  22. Have to agree with Simon McG, the IMF report wasn't exactly critical of the Tories, in fact not at all. It simply said that towards the end of the year if growth hasn't returned then they ought to think about some plans for stimulus. So far there are a couple, HS2, some plans for private spending on infrastructure also. The problem is though borrowing more to spend more simply won't work, yes money is cheaper for us than it is for others but compound interest is still not our friend, it will ramp up our deficit in the long term and it's high enough as it is. The state is bloated, it's far bigger than at any other point in history and it's not sustainable to have a state that's almost as large as the private sector. I'm not suggesting benefit cuts for people in your position, clearly that's wrong but there does have to be some slimming down of the bureaucracy and some painful choices will have to be made. Even if you subscribe to the Keynsian doctrine of spending your way out of recession it simply doesn't apply here because we never had the saving part of the cyclical spending that he advocated. Save in the good times, spend in the bad... unfortunately Brown/Blair never saved, they spent their way through the good times and this is the net result.

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