Cameron's Terror - No Election needed if Coalition Fails

The blogosphere and Twitterati are fizzing and sparking with excitement today.

It seems Mr Clegg and Mr Cable are furious about the EU fiasco and might even stamp their feet a bit.

Clearly, this has led to much discussion of elections. Will Hutton in today's Observer now feels the coalition cannot possibly last until 2015.

I have no opinion. A party that has already moved so far on issues that would have seemed impossible before the election is no longer one I can possibly read. They are already supporting an economic plan that is failing, just as they said it would before the election, a tuition fee rise that is hurting, just as they said it would before the election and the privatisation of the NHS (again something they opposed before the election).

Nonetheless, the point of this post is to share a little democratic procedure.

There would not need to be an election if the coalition falls apart. In fact it is quite unlikely that there would be. 


The fixed term parliament act, passed on 15th September, 2010 as part of the coalition agreement, changed the way elections can be called. This is from the parliament website :

"There are two provisions that trigger an election other than at five year intervals.

• A motion of no confidence is passed in Her Majesty's Government by a simple majority and 14 days elapses without the House passing a confidence motion in any new Government formed
• 
  
• A motion for a general election is agreed by two thirds of the total number of seats in the Commons including vacant seats (currently 434 out of 650)

To translate, if Clegg, Cable et all jump ship, all parties have 14 days to form another government. Effectively, Labour and the Libs with a few "others" can form a government and no election will be called. 

To simply call an election randomly, and dissolve parliament, the coalition changed the rules. Now, 66% of MPs would have to vote against the government in a vote of no confidence. Translating this means that, effectively, it is not possible in practise to get the required vote. It would mean every Labour MP, every LibDem MP, every "other" AND a further 91 Conservative MPs prepared to vote against their own government.

So, to all the commentators and talking heads arguing over whether the Conservatives could win a majority now or indeed, whether Labour could, it is irrelevant.

Liberal Democrats could simply leave the coalition and form a government with Labour, the Greens and others. All they have to do is vote against the government in a vote of no confidence.

Whether they would or not is another matter, but according to law, that is the process. 

It seems almost no-one knows this. All are discussing a possible election.

One things is utterly sure however. Mr Cameron knows it. Mr Clegg knows it. And so does Mr Miliband. 

Clegg in "Tories Lie" Shocker!!

More later, but one thing that occurs to me this morning is that Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems just can't be as naive as they seem. Surely. Can they?

This morning the airwaves are jammed with Lib Dems telling tales to teacher. "He stole my referendum" "He fibbed" "He broke my coalition"

Can they honestly be surprised to find that Conservatives might lie sometimes? That Tories might sell their granny for an archaic voting system that gives them an unfair advantage? It's like a gazelle complaining that a lion ate him. Or bread reacting with astonishment at being made into a sandwich.

No-one else is surprised. No-one. Not even Conservatives. They did what they had to do and won the referendum. No hard feelings, back to business. OK, the campaign was a bit dirty, they were economical with the truth, but it's not like Lib Dems know nothing of that at local level. In my area and many others they run the dirtiest, nastiest election campaigns known to man.

We are told that "the bonhomie of the rose garden has gone". The only thing that astonishes people in the real world is that it was ever allowed to flourish so unquestioningly in the first place.

Do any of you remember that documentary - 5 Days that Changed Britain? I clearly remember Clegg saying that he phoned a friend during coalition negotiations who also knew Cameron well. "Can I trust this guy?" He asked. I shouted back "NOOOOOOOOOOOO!" at the TV screen. "He's a Tory!! He's lied in every single speech he's made during the election campaign and before. He's like a tiger played by Leslie Phillips"

I honestly thought that Clegg must know it too, but had chosen to ignore it for the deputy PM job and a cabinet full of ministers. The sense of genuine outrage Lib Dems are expressing this morning makes me wonder if Clegg is, after all, the most naive politician of all time.?

Just VOTE!

This is a difficult time for elections.

There's no doubt we're all still punch drunk from a year of pretty intense politics. First, an election that gave us 5 straight days of frenzied nail biting, only to leave us with a decision on points and the odd spectacle of a Con/Lib coalition.

No sooner did we catch our breath, but Labour launched into a leadership election and activists who had just given their heart and soul to endless bouts of election campaigning had to decide who would be best placed to lead their party.

More months of hustings and TV shows and campaigning for favoured candidates saw a result nearly as  surprising as the first. The media fed for weeks. It was a straight knock-out in the 5th round.

As soon as the bell rang for the 6th, Osborne came out hitting with the Comprehensive Spending Review. And hitting. He beat us relentlessly with good, old-fashioned Tory ideology that would make Thatcher blush.

So, all good politicos launched into the Main Event and took their places in the "Cut" camp or the..... well, the what camp? That's the big question. Labour as yet, have been looking at the way forward, leaving rather a vacuum in the present

Nonetheless, many of us politics-geeks were thrown Osborne-gauntlets on the 26th October that simply had to be taken up. We went our own way, some fighting for our National Health Service, some for forests. Some, like The Broken of Britain knew they had to speak for the dignity of sick and disable people, others like UK Uncut tried to put forward an alternative in the form of clamping down on tax avoidance. The Robin Hood Tax and 38 Degrees have surged from nowhere, the new, uncontested champions of politics. Social media has arrived and it's changed everything. These excellent, non-partisan groups have opposed certain policies loudly, and often, successfully.

Today however, we get to vote. We get to walk into a polling station and tell this government, this coalition, what we think so far. Like it or hate it, we also get to do that under the First Past The Post (FPTP) voting system.

Students get to say how they feel about the trebling of tuition fees or scrapping EMAs. Concerned citizens get to say what they think about proposals to sell our forests or close our libraries or sell off our parks. Police officers and nurses and doctors and carers get to give their opinion on the attitude this coalition have shown towards their professions. Mum's get to say what they think about scrapping childcare support and Child Trust Funds and Child Benefit.

It's FPTP. You only get to say what you think is by voting for the other parties. So that's Labour, Green, UKIP or the BNP.

If you want to oppose this government, the best way is to strip as many council seats away from them today as possible. Inevitably, often that will mean voting Labour.

When I hear politicians say they are listening, I always give a little chuckle, thinking, "Well, I know I am." I'm not a politician but I can hear you all loud and clear. Labour let you down. Labour have no alternatives yet. Labour need to change.

When you all say "change" I'm beginning to realise you mean CHAAAAANNNGGGE!!!!!

So, I can't speak for the other candidates, and I certainly don't speak for any of the groups above, but I can speak for myself. I'm standing for Labour because no matter what, they are the main political opposition to the coalition at our ballot boxes. Politically, as things stand, that's simply fact. In a ward like mine, where there's a straight three way fight between Lib/Lab/Con the only protest vote is a Labour one.

This is my promise to my electors : I will stand as a Labour candidate and I will be a Labour candidate. I won't win - it's a safe Tory seat - but I will still be the Labour candidate. I will continue to fight for the dignity of the sick and disabled and I will show my party which way to go. I will do my very best to fill in Ed's blank sheet of paper with the word "compassion".

Up and down the country similar candidates are standing for Labour for similar reasons. They will fight just as passionately for your NHS or your trees or your books or your educations. The only way to make sure that the Labour party is a party made up of people like me is to elect us. To give us a chance.

Let us show our party what Labour really is and what we want it to be.

We are not Westminster. We are not Murdoch or Spin. We are the Grass-Roots. We are Labour.

But whatever you decide to do today, please vote. There is more at stake politically now than there has been for generations. Politicians think you don't care, they think they can do what they like because no-one really understands.

Please show them that you understand all too well. Show them that you do care. Just vote.